Money Never Sleeps

For eight out of the past ten years, my personal trading systems have thrived during the final ten days of the year and the opening ten days of the new one.

These statistics are based on the specific time frame dominance of a short term to position trading time frame that you are used to at PPT!

I believe hedge funds and institutions often tweak their year-end figures to appear more favorable, and for tax advantages, they engage in various adjustments. Similarly, the forecasts for the new year are polished for better sales appeal-since it's not always what sells well that truly generates profit. While I can't definitively uncover the peculiar activities that drive these end-of-year and start-of-year dynamics.

Some actions appear questionable, like firms selling a stock only to repurchase it weeks later.

Understanding these underlying motives might not be crucial. However, it's erroneous to assume fund managers are on vacation during this period. Whereas amateur traders might feel lethargic post-Christmas feast or sluggish after New Year’s revelries, I choose to tackle my quarterly and annual accounting either slightly ahead or behind schedule to remain sharp for trading during this peculiar season.

Much like the daily market’s opening and closing, this particular time—when annual, quarterly, monthly, and weekly charts converge—brims with opportunity from a perspective of stacking the odds. Contrary to appearances, the primary motivator isn't greed. Instead, I adopt a conservative size in my trades here, as nothing fuels a risk-averse trader like a strong start. My confidence stems from personal backtesting; if you analyze charts for clean directional trends in position trading, a distinct advantage emerges. And when a touch of luck aligns with my probability calculations, there's no holiday feast or New Year's champagne that matches the exhilaration of kicking off a new trading year on a high note.

It's true what they say: trading is 99% psychological. So, why bypass a low-risk opportunity that could lay the foundation for success in the coming year, filled with fresh hopes and renewed spirit? After all, a trip to the Bahamas is priciest over the holidays but available all year round. Thus, while one cannot command the markets, anything within one's control, such as timing trades, should be handled professionally.

With that in mind, my analyses have started focusing on a top-down timeframe approach, evaluating where markets may be heading in the concluding weeks of 2024 and the opening weeks of 2025.