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How to (not) trade a breakout trade

BO trades are high risk trades since one exposes oneself to:

high volatility

illiquidity

wide spreads

possible false BO's

a trading event everybody can see=no edge

wide stops

reactionary trading

as a result we advise against such risk taking but rather support one of the following methods to participate in a BO scenario:


stack your edges top down approach:


example on recent bitcoin price moves:


daily call:

bullish hammer formation within a trend:




immediate aggressive entries(stacking edges on smaller time frame):


hammer formation here represented on 60 min chart as a "V" formation

setup: "V", sideways, dip, go


with VWAP support

and action/reaction momentum play

plus CCI ZLR


financing near BO resistance line

and rest position takes the BO trade without risk



second immediate entry confirmed

similar thing just a bit later taking the "V" entry confirmed

with a SMA support entry zone

and a stochastic pair sling entry:



from this point on after the immediate trades any trade on the now established lower support zone either horizontally in a sideways box scenario or a directional support line is a low risk entry point for an anticipated long BO play:








in our case:



alternatively fading a retracement right below the BO levels is also a way for a confirmed late entry prior to a BO:



confirmed reentries or reloads after the BO are also low risk trades both on the directional and horizontal BO line depending on the aggressiveness of the market:






we took all these trades over the weekend to illustrate this principle in real time


all trades were winning trades and still have half of their remainder position size exposed


while a classical BO trade most likely would be stopped out with it remaining position size


but it isn't profitability that this approach is after and even risk isn't education isn't the greatest gain.

What you gain in replacing this conservative approach with a classical TA BO play is that this risk averse market play builds confidence


in this case you find yourself in 5 winning trades versus a classical BO approach that might satisfy the ego and an emotional rush but has a very low hi rate at best and can only be traded on very small size based on wider stops necessary

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